TY  - JOUR
AU  - Borjas, George J.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Business Closures, Stay-at-Home Restrictions, and COVID-19 Testing Outcomes in New York City
T2  - Preventing Chronic Disease
JO  - Prev Chronic Dis
SP  - E109
VL  - 17
CY  - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
N2  - INTRODUCTION  In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, New York City closed all nonessential businesses and restricted the out-of-home activities of residents as of March 22, 2020. This order affected different neighborhoods differently, as stores and workplaces are not randomly distributed across the city, and different populations may have responded differently to the out-of-home restrictions. This study examines how the business closures and activity restrictions affected COVID-19 testing results. An evaluation of whether such actions slowed the spread of the pandemic is a crucial step in designing effective public health policies. METHODS  Daily data on the fraction of COVID-19 tests yielding a positive result at the zip code level were analyzed in relation to the number of visits to local businesses (based on smartphone location) and the number of smartphones that stayed fixed at their home location. The regression model also included vectors of fixed effects for the day of the week, the calendar date, and the zip code of residence. RESULTS  A large number of visits to local businesses increased the positivity rate of COVID-19 tests, while a large number of smartphones that stayed at home decreased it. A doubling in the relative number of visits increases the positivity rate by about 12.4 percentage points (95% CI, 5.3 to 19.6). A doubling in the relative number of stay-at-home devices lowered it by 2.0 percentage points (95% CI, -2.9 to -1.2). The business closures and out-of-home activity restrictions decreased the positivity rate, accounting for approximately 25% of the decline observed in April and May 2020. CONCLUSION  Policy measures decreased the likelihood of positive results in COVID-19 tests. These specific policy tools may be successfully used when comparable health crises arise in the future.
SN  - 1545-1151
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5888/pcd17.200264
DO  - 10.5888/pcd17.200264
ER  - 
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