TY  - JOUR
AU  - Zhang, Wenchao
AU  - Wang, Linping
AU  - Chen, Yafei
AU  - Tang, Fang
AU  - Xue, Fuzhong
AU  - Zhang, Chengqi
PY  - 2015
TI  - Identification of Hypertension Predictors and Application to Hypertension Prediction in an Urban Han Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Study, 2005-2010
T2  - Preventing Chronic Disease
JO  - Prev Chronic Dis
SP  - E184
VL  - 12
CY  - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
N2  - INTRODUCTION  Research suggests that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive patients for preventive intervention may delay the onset of hypertension. We aimed to develop a biomarker-based risk prediction model for assessing hypertension risk in an urban Han Chinese population. METHODS  We analyzed data from 26,496 people with hypertension to extract factors from 11 check-up biomarkers. Then, depending on a 5-year follow-up cohort, a Cox model for predicting hypertension development was built by using extracted factors as predictors. Finally, we created a hypertension synthetic predictor (HSP) by weighting each factor with its risk for hypertension to develop a risk assessment matrix. RESULTS  After factor analysis, 5 risk factors were extracted from data for both men and women. After a 5-year follow-up, the cohort of participants had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746-0.763) for men and an OR of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.792-0.810) for women. After tenfold cross validation, the AUC was still high, with 0.755 (95% CI, 0.746-0.763) for men and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.791-0.810) for women. An HSP-based 5-year risk matrix provided a convenient tool for risk appraisal. CONCLUSION  Hypertension could be explained by 5 factors in a population sample of Chinese urban Han. The HSP may be useful in predicting hypertension.
SN  - 1545-1151
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd12.150192
DO  - 10.5888/pcd12.150192
ER  - 
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