Volume 11 — August 14, 2014
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Factors Related to Coronary Heart Disease Risk Among Men: Validation of the Framingham Risk Score
| Exclusion and Inclusion Criteria for Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS). | Population Size After Each Criterion is Applied | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACLS men with complete FRS data aged 30 to 74 years | 38,469 |
| 2 | Free of CHD at baseline, BMI ≥ 18.5 kg/m2 | 36,629 |
| 3 | Free of cancer at baseline | 35,603 |
| 4 | Men with at least one year of follow-up | 34,557 |
| 5a | Free of coronary heart disease during the 12-year follow-up | 33,970 |
| 5b | Experienced a coronary heart disease event during the 12-year follow-up period | 587 |
Abbreviations: FRS, Framingham Heart Study; CHD, coronary heart disease; BMI, body mass index.
Figure 1. Study flow and Aerobic Center Longitudinal Study inclusion criteria depicting final sample size and coronary heart disease event frequency. Men with complete Framingham Risk Score data and body mass index ≥ 18.5 kg/m2 were included in the analysis. Abbreviations: FRS, Framingham Heart Study; CHD, coronary heart disease; BMI, body mass index.
| Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Association Statistics | Area Under the Curve | Standard Error | 95% Confidence Interval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 0.7697 | 0.00889 | 0.7523 | 0.7871 |
Figure 2. Receiver operating characteristic curve representing the predictive ability of the Framingham Risk Score applied to the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study cohort after a 12-year follow-up. The Hosmer-Lemeshow
C statistic is represented by the Area Under the Curve (C = 0.7697, 95%
confidence interval, 0.7523–0.7871).
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